ARE WE SEEING SIGNS THAT INFLATION HAS PEAKED? MORTGAGE RATES IMPROVING!

Oh boy, it’s been a busy week since last weeks Market Update friends! Between election being on the calendar, CPI – Consumer Price Index Report for October came in showing signs that we might have reached a peak with inflationary numbers.

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE WEEKS EVENTS – DISCUSSION ITEMS:

✅CPI – Consumer Price Index report came in today. We talked about CPI in further detail last week to illustrate year over year; which figures were up and that shows signs of increasing inflationary numbers; however we were waiting for this weeks CPI October 10th report and it showed signs of softening/lowering. This is good for inflation. Remember as we’ve discussed prior that as inflation comes down so will interest rates which positively impacts the consumers confidence level. Though it’s not a direct correlation to a homebuyers interest to buy, it’s easy enough to assume that as interest rates drop, buyer demand will improve!

👉🏽CPI Headline — mo/mo up 0.4%; however DOWN from 8.2% to 7.7%
👉🏽CPI Core — mo/mo up 0.3%; however DOWN from 6.6% to 6.3%

👉🏽Shelter — Up 0.8% so 6.9% year over year
👉🏽Rent — Up 0.8% (Up due to LODGING AWAY FROM HOME)

✍🏽BIG FYI — The numbers shown above would have been even better had it not been for the lodging away from home being high; otherwise the CPI would have been even lower.

✅Republicans have won the House by a slim majority. This can create a gridlock in decision making for future bills to be passed because in order to get them passed we need a majority vote from both the House and the Senate!

✅Federal Chairman Powell last week was a little dovish in idea that inflationary numbers will see a softening so stayed strong in the projection to see another rate hike in December.

✅Consumer debt increase–fastest 9 month surge in history.

✅Applications month over month are up 1% and still down 40% year over year

✅Initial jobless claims risen by 129K in the last month. We are seeing more people stay on unemployment benefits longer trying to find a new job. Larger companies are issuing layoffs as I’m sure we’ve all seen (ie: Amazon, Facebook, Twitter)

✅Happy Veterans Day and thank you for your service!

OTHER NOTED/TRUSTED LINKS TO REFERENCE:

👉🏽🔗Appraiser Ryan Lundquist Blog: https://sacramentoappraisalblog.com/
👉🏽🔗US Bureau of Labor Stats CPI: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

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Josh Mottashed
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